This Premier League Weekly Bet: Is Over 2.5 Goals Worth Backing Every Week? article tackles the question, will there ever be a weekend full of goals?

Is it us, or does there seem to be more goals in the Premier League this season? We sent the AccaDoo stats geeks on a fact-finding mission and what they found was eye-opening.

At the time of writing (February 2019), the 2018/19 Premier League season has seen more games over 2.5 goals than ever before. Here’s the Premier League’s vital statistics:

  • 249 matches played out of a possible 380
  • 703 goals
  • 2.82 goals per game
  • 56% of games ending over 2.5 goals

It has the highest goals per game ratio in English professional leagues. It has more over 2.5 results than the Championship, League One and League Two.

League

Games played by Feb 4th 2019 % over 2.5 goals
Premier League 249

56%

Championship

356

49%

League One

362

53%

League Two 361

47%

 

Who are the go-to goal scoring sides?

There’s only five sides in the league who don’t average over half their games finishing over 2.5 goals. Crystal Palace are the worst offenders with just 36% of their games ending over 2.5 goals. Then Wolves, Leicester, Huddersfield and Brighton are also guilty of low-scoring affairs. At the other end of the spectrum are the two Manchester sides. City and United both average 76% of their games ending over 2.5 goals. Bournemouth, Arsenal and Spurs are next in line.

How does it compare to last season?

During the 2017/18 season, the Premier League had only a 51% over 2.5 goals strike rate. Man City, 71%, and Arsenal, 68%, were the goal-scoring front runners. Brighton, once again, featured down the other end of the goals table with just 34%, the lowest in the division.  The season before, 2016/17, saw Man City once again top the averages with 71% in a season that saw 54% of all Premier League games end over 2.5 goals.

So is Over 2.5 Goals Worth Backing Every Week?

With 66% of the league season completed, we feel it is fair to start committing to a regular weekly bet that doesn’t change. And off the back of the AccaDoo geeks’ hard work, we are lumping a quid on over 2.5 goals on all Saturday Premier League games as an acca. Every week. The odds usually work out between 60/1 and 100/1 depending on how many games there are on a Saturday.

Luckily for you, we’ve done the hard work for you and created the weekly betslip so you don’t have to. Get amongst this week’s bet here. 

Has it ever happened before?

The AccaDoo stats geeks only traced back through the Saturday fixtures for 2017 to present day and could not find one instance of it happening. There’s typically seven games on a Saturday afternoon with an early kick off, five 3pm kick-offs and a later kick-off. Six games ending over 2.5 goals happened three times last season. Five games ending over 2.5 goals happened far more frequently. Backing six Premier League games to end over 2.5 goals would normally return close to 50/1 so it isn’t a bad option. But the bigger, the better, right?

The 2018/19 season has seen some very near misses. At the time of writing, there has been 21 Premier League Saturdays and two have seen all but one of the games end over 2.5 goals. Close but no cigar. That tells us it is coming soon. Could this weekend be the one?!

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